The 2024 Galician Elections: the failure of the two-bloc system

Abstract

This paper discusses the possible causes of the failure of the two-bloc system in the Galician regional elections held in 2024. We will begin by examining the vote transfers from these elections to the 2023 general elections to estimate the magnitude of the problem: the PSdG lost more than half of the votes it had obtained in the general elections six months earlier. Next, we will develop a typology of socialist voters to determine whether this unprecedented decline was due to the different nature of the elections (dual voting) or, on the contrary, was caused by strategic reasons.

Keywords:

Electoral behaviour, electoral loyalty, Galicia, ideology, party loyalty, affective polarization

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